Prediction Analysis – Trading Statistics

This screen shows the trading statistics for the selected optimal net, paper trading net or actual trading net. Using this information, you can evaluate how well you have setup your prediction.

If you have selected to display the detailed analysis of a walk-forward or an average you will be given a choice of displaying the training statistics or the evaluation statistics for the trades that occurred over the selected periods. To do this, select the Show Training Statistics option or the Show Evaluation Statistics option.

The following is a list of results that you will receive for the selected walk-forward evaluated by All trades, Long only, and Short only:
Start Date – The first date included in the backtest. (DayTrader Only) See note below regarding start date.
End Date – The last date included in the backtest
Beginning Price – The closing price on the start date
Ending Price – The closing price on the end date
Change in Price – The difference between the beginning and ending price
Percent Change in Price – The percent difference between the beginning and ending price.
Annual Percent Change in Price – The annualized percent change in price. Annual Percent Change in Price = 365 * (Percent Change in Price) / (Number of Calendar days between Start Date and End Date)
Return on Trades – The cumulative sum of all returns for each trade (including any open profit/loss on the last day of the backtest). For long trades, Return = 100 * ((exit price – entry price) * shares) – exit commission – entry commission) / (entry price * shares + entry commission). For short trades, Return = 100 * ((entry price – exit price) * shares) – exit commission – entry commission) / (entry price * shares + entry commission). Note that the entry and exit price incorporate any specified slippage and/or point value. For more explanation refer to Return on Account vs. Return on Trades.
Annual Return on Trades – The annualized return on trades. Annual Return on Trades = 365 * (Return on Trades) / (Number of Calendar days between Start Date and End Date)
Return on Account – The net profit relative to the account size required to trade over the backtest (including any open profit/loss on the last day of the backtest). Return on Account = 100 * (Net Profit) / (Account Size Required). For more explanation refer to Return on Account vs. Return on Trades.
Annual Return on Account – The annualized return on account. Annual Return on Account = 365 * (Return on Account) / (Number of Calendar days between Start Date and End Date)
Net Profit – The total dollar profit/loss for the trading strategy during the backtest (including any open profit/loss on the last day of the backtest). Net Profit = (Gross Profit) – (Gross Loss)
Gross Profit – The total profit for all profitable trades over the backtest (including any open profit/loss on the last day of the backtest). For long trades with an entry price < exit price, Trade Profit = exit price – entry price – commissions. For short trades with an exit price < entry price, Trade Profit = entry price – exit price – commissions. Note that the entry and exit price incorporate any specified slippage and/or point value.
Gross Loss – The total loss for all losing trades over the backtest (including any open profit/loss on the last day of the backtest). For long trades with an entry price > exit price, Trade Loss = entry price – exit price – commissions. For short trades with an exit price > entry price, Trade Loss = exit price – entry price – commissions. Note that the entry and exit price incorporate any specified slippage and/or point value.
Ratio Gross Profit/Loss – The gross profit relative to the gross loss. Ratio Gross Profit/Loss = (Gross Profit) / (Gross Loss)
Percent Profitable Trades – The percent of the trades over the backtest that were profitable. Percent Profitable Trades = 100 * (Number Winning Trades) / (Number of Trades)
Number Trades – The number of trades over the backtest.
Number Winning Trades – The number of trades over the backtest that were profitable.
Number Losing Trades – The number of trades over the backtest that were not profitable.
Largest Winning Trade Profit – The most profit made by a trade during the backtest.
Largest Losing Trade Loss – The largest loss caused by a trade during the backtest.
Average Trade Profit – The average gain (or loss) across all trades in the backtest. Average Trade Profit = Net Profit / Number Trades
Average Winning Trade Profit -The average gain across all profitable trades in the backtest. Average Winning Trade Profit = (Gross Profit) / (Number Winning Trades)
Average Losing Trade Loss – The average loss across all losing trades in the backtest.
Ratio Avg Win/Avg Loss – The average winning trade profit relative to the average losing trade profit. Ratio Avg Win/Avg Loss = (Average Winning Trade Profit) / (Average Losing Trade Loss)
Maximum Consecutive Winners – The maximum number of consecutive profitable trades during the backtest.
Maximum Consecutive Losers – The maximum number of consecutive losing trades during the backtest.
Average Trade Span – The average number of bars between the entry order signal and the exit order execution for each trade in the backtest.
Average Winning Trade Span – The average number of bars between the entry order signal and the exit order execution for each profitable trade in the backtest.
Average Losing Trade Span – The average number of bars between the entry order signal and the exit order execution for each losing trade in the backtest.
Longest Trade Span – The largest number of bars between the entry order signal and the exit order execution for any single trade during the backtest.
Longest Winning Trade Span – The largest number of bars between the entry order signal and the exit order execution for any single profitable trade during the backtest.
Longest Losing Trade Span – The largest number of bars between the entry order signal and the exit order execution for any single losing trade during the backtest.
Largest Shares Traded – The largest number of shares traded during any single trade during the backtest.
Largest Winning Shares Traded – The largest number of shares traded during any single profitable trade during the backtest.
Largest Losing Shares Traded – The largest number of shares traded during any single losing trade during the backtest.
Average Shares Traded – The average number of shares traded for each trade in the backtest.
Average Winning Shares Traded – The average number of shares traded for each profitable trade in the backtest.
Average Losing Shares Traded – The average number of shares traded for each losing trade in the backtest.
Commissions Paid – The total amount of commissions paid during the backtest.
Maximum Drawdown – The maximum value of drawdown, where the drawdown at each bar is the difference between the highest prior closed net profit and the current open net profit. Drawdown = (Largest Net Profit prior to trade entry) – (Net Profit prior to trade entry) + (Open Trade Drawdown)
Maximum Open Trade Drawdown – The maximum open trade drawdown for any trade during the backtest. Open Trade Drawdown = (shares traded) * [(entry price) – (worst price during the trade)]. Note that the entry price incorporates any specified slippage and/or point value.
Required Account Size – If a margin per contract has been selected on the trading parameters screen, then the Required Account Size = (Maximum Drawdown) + (Margin Per Contract) * (Largest Contracts Traded). If no margin per contract has been selected, then the Required Account Size is the largest entry cost where Entry Cost = (number of shares traded) * (entry price) – (Net Profit prior to trade entry). Note that the entry price incorporates any specified slippage and/or point value.
Notes:

  • If missing data prevents the prediction from being made (i.e. you’re using the Japanese Nikki Index as an input, but it’s a Japanese Holiday, so there is no prediction made) the prediction will not generate any trading signals. Therefore, a trading system based upon the prediction will remain in the same position it was prior to the missing data. Hence, the prediction’s profit statistics are based on not trading on days with missing data.
  • (DayTrader Only) The Start Date corresponds to the date/time of the first bar in the backtest. It should be noted that a bar’s time is when the bar is complete and not when the bar started.

For example, on a 30 minute chart, the 10:00am bar contains all the price action from 9:30am to 10:00am. If the Start Date was at 10:00am, then the 10:00am bar was the first bar used for backtesting and therefore the backtest includes price action starting at 9:30am.

  • Note that predictions based upon data in the Mutual Fund or Money Market Fund category will have fill prices on the next close instead of the next open. This is done to better simulate actual Mutual Fund orders which are filled at the funds posted closing price the next day.
  • It should be understood that trading can result in losses, and that past performance of a trading system is no guarantee of future performance.

Topic of Interest:
What are Neural Networks?

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