July 2011 Newsletter

In this issue:

I. MarketTilt daily signals

II. Get Acquainted Sale for existing users

III. Commentary by Steve Ward, CEO

IV. BMJ Software News

V. One way to stop this newsletter

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I. MarketTilt daily signals

Our users have varying levels of ability, and some of you have asked for turnkey models you can trade while you’re are perfecting your own. We have therefore decided to again offer our MarketTilt daily model service, so that you can lease daily signals made by experts. Currently we are offering signals from a NeuroShell SPY model made by one of our long time users that has been “out of sample” since 2004, and has continued to produce profitable signals since then!

For more information visit:

www.markettilt.net

Contact us to discuss or sign up for signals.

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II. Get Acquainted Sale for existing users

This sale is for our users who own one of our flagship products and would like to add another one to their toolbox. If you already own one of these products:

ChaosHunter ($1495), NeuroShell Trader Professional ($1495), AI Trilogy ($1395)

then we will let you have a $295 discount for the purchase of one of the other products until the first of August. This discount does not apply to upgrades and updates, only new purchases, and cannot be combined with any other promotions.

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III. Commentary by Steve Ward, CEO

1. Bizarro Models. I have long believed that the markets are efficient in at least one way – if patterns emerge, then they MUST change eventually because if they don’t, too many people will detect the patterns and too many people will make money, which can’t happen. Most of us have experienced that often our models are just mostly wrong, usually after the training/optimization period ends. That happens if you overfit, but it can also happen if you find good patterns, but the patterns change. So if your model always is wrong, then the opposite model may be at least usually right! There are tips on both the NeuroShell and ChaosHunter portions of ward.net to help you create opposite models. Look for “Bizarro Models”. They can make a huge difference in your success rate.

2. Optimization linking improvement. NeuroShell release 6.0 has major improvements in the optimization interface. You now have a great deal of flexibility in choosing some rules, inputs, and parameters to optimize and some not to optimize. No longer are you forced to set a parameter optimization range at say 5 to 5 to keep a single parameter set at 5, i.e., not optimized.

However, in the latest beta releases we have made another improvement which for some of us may be an even bigger time saver. It greatly speeds up what was a very tedious process before – linking parameters together so that they optimize to the same value. I’ll explain:

Let’s say that you have a number of long entry rules, with similar but opposite short entry rules. Many users like to see symmetry in some parameters of these rules. For example, instead of:

Long entry – RSI(30) >70
Short entry – RSI(25) <30 You might rather have: Long entry - RSI(30) >50
Short entry – RSI(30) <50 So NeuroShell allows you to "link" the lookback parameters so that they optimize to the same value. It does this by giving each such linked parameter a common name. (See the release the 6.0 video "Setting Optimization Ranges".) Prior to the recent betas, you had to type in the name of each link, but now a proposed link name is created for you which has the same name as the parameter. Later when you match another parameter of the same name, that link is again inserted for you. If you match a large number of parameters (as I do when I use the Neural Indicators or Cluster Indicators add-ons) it is a big time saver. *********************************************************** IV. BMJ Software News BMJ Software has informed us that they will be releasing version 2.0 of the BMJ Fractal Analysis Indicator Set. Here's their announcement: We are very excited to announce that we are putting the finishing touches on version 2.0 of the BMJ Fractal Analysis Indicator Set that has been optimized for use with NeuroShell Trader 6. You will recognize all of your favorite indicators in this new version. The difference is that all of the indicators have been rewritten to provide an additional degree of precision. The new optimization algorithms included with NST 6 seem to be able to take advantage of this additional precision, resulting in the opportunity for improved performance. In addition, version 2.0 now includes new versions of the BMJ FFilter, BMJ SFilter, and BMJ ZLFilter indicators that include a tuning feature. With this feature you can further fine tune the calculation of the fractal filter and the amount of noise that is filtered out or left in the resulting indicator. The results with this added new feature appear to be very promising. Version 2.0 will be available for purchase from our website beginning July 26, 2011. All licensed purchasers of version 1.0 will be eligible for special upgrade pricing. We are also preparing additional products to support your trading and the use of the BMJ Fractal Analysis Indicators. These will be rolled out over the next couple of months. They will be announced via email and/or the Ward Systems Group newsletter. If you check out the website frequently, you won't miss out on any of the new releases. Thanks for your continuing support of the software, Dennis Voigt BMJ Software www.bmjsoftware.com *********************************************************** V. One way to stop this newsletter It is really easy. Just change your email address and don't tell us. ***********************************************************

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