August 2016 Newsletter – Use Pattern Matcher to Project Future Values

NEW RELEASE OF NEUROSHELL TRADER AVAILABLENewtrader
We have posted NeuroShell Trader 6.5 Release Candidate 1 on www.ward.net in the Release News section of the website.  There is no charge to download the release if you currently own any previous version of Release 6.
The following changes are of particular relevance to FXCM users, but the last item may affect all users.
  • Added the FXCM CFD list files so European FXCM clients could easily access CFD symbols in NeuroShell Trader.  Note:  CFDs or Contract for Difference is a agreement to pay the difference between the opening and closing price.  CFDs are generally not available for trading in the United States.
  • Fixed the issue where exits on some non-US FXCM accounts reversed positions instead of exiting a position.
  • Added auto subscribe to the FXCM-NST trading interface so symbols to which the user is not subscribed in FXCM Trading Station will be automatically subscribed and the user won’t receive the “instrument is not available for trading” error message from FXCM on unsubscribed symbols.
  • Fixed the issue of PriceTargetValue indicators used in Exit Order Limit Orders not calculating correctly on entry bars and causing an immediate exit from a position.
 

Upgrade your release 6 version of NeuroShell Trader to a higher level version of NeuroShell Trader or  update a Release 3, 4, or 5 copy of the software to Release 6.
Network Distributed Optimization Upgrades Included
Even faster optimization of large complex models with distributed processing across multiple computers when you purchase an upgrade to the home network (up to 3 computers), office network (up to 10) or corporate network (up to 25) versions.  You must own a Power User version of NeuroShell Trader prior to purchasing a network version.
The Pattern Matcher add-on described in this newsletter is also on sale
USE PATTERN MATCHER TO PROJECT FUTURE VALUESPattern

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USE ONLY THE DATA THAT EXCEEDS A THRESHOLD FOR A PATTERN MATCH TO MAKE FUTURE PROJECTIONS
We have previously written about the Pattern Matcher Add-on and demonstrated how it could be used to determine whether a pattern you specify occurred in the past.  But the obvious question is that once a pattern is identified, what happens next in the market?  Identifying market moves may be second nature for traders who have watched charts for years, but the projection indicators included in the Pattern Matcher Add-on may help level the playing field.
For example, the Project Max and Min indicators find patterns in an indicator such as Momentum and use that information to project future min and max values for the close 5 bars into the future.

The Pattern Matcher Project Min and Max indicators look for patterns in the Momentum indicator to predict the value of the close 5 bars into the future.  When the match value does not exceed a given threshold, no projections are made.

 
We recommend using indicators such as Momentum that are normalized over the entire data stream as the data stream to watch in the Project Min and Max indicators.  Momentum computes the change from the current momentum value and the value several periods ago.  No matter how much the price may fluctuate over several years of data, the Momentum value from one day to the next is not likely to vary that much from one day to the next. This will make it easier for the Project Min/Max indicators to find similar patterns.
Once the patterns are identified in the Momentum indicator, the amount of pattern match is compared to a threshold that you set (or optimize).  If the amount of pattern match meets or exceeds the threshold,  the projected  Max and Min values for the close are displayed on the chart.  If the pattern does not exceed the threshold, the projection is not displayed, which is what occurs when there are gaps in the projections on the chart.
Based on our experience, it is better to use the Project indicators for discretionary trading rather than as inputs to a neural network or a trading strategy.
The complete product manual may be read on our web site:  http://www.neuroshell.com/add-ons.html .  Look for details on the Pattern Matcher add-on and the link for the product manual appears at the end.  You can download the chart created for this article from www.ward.net .
IF YOUR DATA LOOKS FLAT, CHECK YOUR CLOCKFlat
Tech support icon. Internet button on white background.
Common Tech Support Issues
If you download data for a NeuroShell Trader chart and the historical bars look normal but the new incoming bars look flat, your data feed clock may be different from your computer clock.  This could happen if new updates are installed on your computer.   The flat bars occur because a complete bar is not downloaded due to differences in clock time.
The solution is to set your computer clock to synch with the Internet.  To do this click on the clock in the lower left hand corner of the computer and then click on “Change date and time settings”, select the Internet Time tab, and make sure the computer clock is set to synchronize with the internet. 

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