In this issue:
I. Marge Sherald’s 20 Reasons Why You Should Be at the Tucson Seminar October 9 – 11
II. From Contractor to Trader, with the help of NeuroShell
III. NeuroShell Insures Fairness in Evaluating Genetics Nurses
IV. Commentary by Steve Ward, CEO
V. One way to stop this newsletter
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I. Marge Sherald’s 20 Reasons Why You Should Be at the Tucson Seminar October 9 – 11
1. You’ll learn about using combinations of neural nets and/or trading rules (a synthesis that’s mathematically proven to be more powerful than a single system).
2. You’ll get a refresher on the difference between linear and non-linear regression and how to apply this knowledge to trading.
3. You’ll learn enough about neural networks, genetic algorithm optimization (including sex and mutations), and fuzzy logic to be dangerous at your next social event.
4. You’ll discover when the Trader uses a neural net and when it uses a genetic algorithm.
5. You’ll know when to apply the Fuzzy Pattern Recognizer add-on and when to use Fuzzy Sets.
6. You’ll be able to eyeball a pattern, mark it with the Pattern Matcher add-on, and see how many times it occurred in the past and whether it will occur in the future.
7. You’ll find out how to use the Trader to scan a basket of stocks before you build a single chart.
8. You’ll save optimization time after locking and pairing parameters used in trading strategies and neural nets.
9. You’ll get answers to questions about balancing and hedging portfolios.
10. You’ll be able to enter trades just prior to close or just after open with daily bars on a real time feed.
11. You’ll find out that some neural nets don’t predict anything but still give accurate trading signals.
12. You’ll be able to build fundamental models with the NeuroShell Classifier.
13. You’ll discover that you, too, can program indicators in Power Basic.
14. You’ll get a lot of individual attention regarding your trading systems. The class size is limited to 30 attendees due to room size. That means more time to get answers to YOUR questions.
15. You won’t learn who Granny is, but you’ll be able to make a much better guess.
16. You’ll be able to answer the question “What are Redundant Haar Wavelets and how they can be used for trading.”
17. You’ll be able to use a trigger Indicator to remember the value of a time series into the future.
18. You’ll learn how to detect consecutive conditions.
19. You’ll be able to set up limit prices with conditions.
20. You’ll meet an international group of fellow NeuroShell Trader users you can’t find anywhere else!
Don’t let this opportunity pass you by. http://www.neuroshell.com/seminar.asp
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II. From Contractor to Trader, with the Help of NeuroShell
Cleve Gombar is the perfect example of a trader who is comfortable with change. He wears casual clothes, sports long hair and exudes Midwestern calm and cheer. Until recently (2006) he worked as a construction site supervisor for large developments through his own construction business. “I used to work so very physically hard, many times 10 and 12 hour days 6 days a week. Now, however, I have been able to reach a very lofty goal of joining those traders who actually live off of the income from their trades.”
He’s paid his trading dues; he began trading stocks in the 80’s after doing research for the first one and a half to two years. He graphed his charts by hand. In the late 80’s he switched to commodities when he saw better potential there because of increased volatility and accepted the increased risk. In the 90s he added futures. He traded grains 6 months to 1 year ahead.
“I have been trading commodities for at least 20 years, sometimes with continuous losing streaks that have left me over $100,000 in the RED, broke, and re-evaluating. . . sometimes trading $3000 to get gains of $35,000 in a few days,” according to Gombar. “I no longer lose money the same irrational way I used to . . . now I trade a set of rules, so losing money is built-in as a risk to be taken to get the gains. The NeuroShell DayTrader Pro software has allowed me to become comfortably profitable. I really no longer can imagine trading without the NeuroShell DayTrader Pro. ”
“Your program is so easy for me to use, you have excellent tutorials and because of that, I started experimenting with making my own trading system, which eventually became several different types of trading systems…of which I was then able to trade different styles throughout the year, and with different futures contracts. I really am an average person that entered the trading scene, but by fooling around with your software, and gleaning lots of information from your FREE help…you have pointed me in a learning direction I would not have taken. I began reading various articles and references mentioned on your site, which naturally lead me to other interesting articles elsewhere, and immediately I was doing hands-on experimentation. Your software magically found connections between indicators and data that I still marvel at,” said Gombar.
“Because of this software, I’ve changed all of my systems from two years ago. It’s because the software can find and exploit nuances that I cannot immediately discern. I’m not looking back over my shoulder, I’m learning and moving on,” according to Gombar. Today he trades gold using 15 minute bars in the early morning (he’s in a central time zone). He starts to trade between 5 and 9:30 am central time in the U.S. and is generally done by 10 or 11 a.m. He’ll often trade three contacts at a time, and up to 3 times in a day based on pullbacks, day-trend, etc. . He’ll get out after making somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 on each contract.
He went after trading as a means of making more money so he could free up time to spend with his family and pursue other interests. “You have to decide what enjoyment in life that you want. You have to find your own niche. Work is the “clay” to get it done. I looked at the lottery and trading, among other things, and decided that trading was the way for me to go because trading had better statistics than buying lottery tickets.”
Gombar believes in intuition but backs his trading up with models. “We all can use intuition but we tend to shut it down. Sometimes we look at intuition failures rather than successes. Intuition gives good and bad information and we have to discern what is right. That is why action, then receiving and evaluating feedback-results is vitally important in my life. It gives me my unfaltering belief in where my next footstep should fall.”
Gombar felt he got ripped off by floor traders, a lesson he was glad he learned early on. “Make sure the traders are looking out for you and you look out for you. As you make more trades, you need a system and discipline.” In the 90s he learned through the “ouch factor”. It was really expensive to make mistakes.” He did some electronic trading in 1994 and switched completely in 1997. Then he was trading the S&P and other e-minis.
He bought the NeuroShell Trader in September 2004. He was trying to eliminate the influence of fundamentals on his trades. He had studied the effect of announcements in the market, and avoids trading during those days or weeks.
Now he sets up swing trades that can last three or four days because of his exit system, optimized with the NeuroShell DayTrader Pro software. Holding more than an overnight can happen about ten times a year or so. Usually he is in and out within one to two days or within hours. He’s a fan of Bollinger Bands. “There are many different things to do with those.”
His philosophy is to only take a piece of the action. When he sees a trade, he doesn’t jump right in as a true swing trader would do. He waits until his indicators tell him to jump in. For example, if there is indicated a high probability of a $500 move, he enters $100 late and takes $200. One of his gold models looks at price in relation to Pivot Point Channels that are included in the Trader, along with the Keltner Channels from Advanced Indicator Set 1 and the Super Smoother indicator from the John Ehlers’ MESA8 add-on. He also likes the Laguerre RSI from the Ehler’s Cybernetic Analysis add-on. Trade entries are based on an indicator in which Gombar combined Bollinger Bands with the MESA 8 Super Smoother indicator.
“Don’t fall in love with any trade – the market doesn’t care about us. If you make money, say thanks. If you don’t, don’t beat yourself up. Sometimes you just don’t trade. It’s like trying to get fish to bite. ”
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III. NeuroShell Insures Fairness in Evaluating Genetics Nurses
The Center for Self-Sustaining Leadership (CSL) has successfully used NeuroShell to bring consistency in an otherwise subject evaluation process to certify nurses in a genetics specialty.
Credentialing genetics nurses goes beyond academic degrees. The different educational levels don’t address the clinical skills required in specialized fields such as genetic nurses. So in addition to meeting specific degree requirements (a bachelor’s degree for a generalist and a master’s degree or equivalent for a specialist), applicants for the genetics certification needed to submit a portfolio of four cases studies based on their work.
The portfolios are evaluated according to performance standards for the genetics specialty developed by the International Society of Nurses of Genetics (ISONG). CSL added expertise in quantifiable measurements of portfolio components and application of neural nets to ensure evaluator reliability. CSL was required to translate ISONG standards into observable and measurable components of standards and performance indicators. The CSL team found that “working through this process is difficult and most groups struggle with the challenge of deriving performance indicators from standards of practice.”
The portfolios are scored by a panel of evaluators who had been thoroughly trained in the process. It takes an average of one to two hours for an evaluator to score a portfolio. After scoring a portfolio, the evaluator enters his/her scores on a secure web site designed by CSL. The evaluators do not discuss the scores among themselves until all of the data is entered. Once the scores are received, a CSL staff member enters them into a pretrained neural network based upon previous evaluations. The neural net determines consistency of evaluator scoring and makes an initial determination if an applicant meets the standards. If an outlier appears, the evaluators are asked to rescore that particular section. If the problem reoccurs, the evaluators make the final decision. “It is essential to remember that ultimately the evaluators, and not a computer program, make the final decision,” according to CSL.
The neural network has shown an approximately 98% accuracy rate. The network insures that evaluator scores are compatible with scores from previous years and current ones. The network can still be applied even if scored items are added or removed from the portfolio.
For more information, refer to the book Genetics Nursing Portfolios, A New Model for Credentialing edited by Rita Black Monsen. Chapter 7 entitled “Use of Neural Net Technology to Quantify Portfolio Evaluations,” by Dave Holmes, Robert McAlpine, and Jack Russell, discusses the specifics of the neural network. The book is published by the American Nurses Association.
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IV. Commentary by Steve Ward, CEO
1. Tucson. I should mention that Mark Simpson will be attending our Tucson Seminar. He is the principal behind Bowfort (www.bowfort.com) that makes so many great add-ons and data feeds for NeuroShell. We are giving him time in our workshops to demo some of his products, and of course he will be available each day for discussions.
Mark came to the last seminar too, as did some other dignitaries. There were three of our “Real Traders”:
(http://www.neuroshell.com/traders.asp?task=interviews), two of whom had attended previous seminars. Two more customers became Real Traders a while after the seminar. Of course I’m not promising that attending our seminar makes you a top trader, but it isn’t beyond me to try to leave you with that impression.
Also Maureen Caudill came to the last seminar. Maureen forgot more about neural nets than I ever knew. She was a fixture in the industry when I got started in it in 1987, and a friend ever since. Lately Maureen has written a number of books on other topics, and she gave me a copy of her “Suddenly Psychic – A Skeptic’s Journey”. It is a fascinating story of how she learned to release her psychic abilities, which she makes a great case everyone possesses. Neural net/brain theory and modern physics are used to explain things. If it wasn’t coming from Maureen I would be skeptical too. It shouldn’t be hard to guess the psychic ability the traders at the seminar wanted to develop! I am hoping she will work on that in the future.
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V. One way to stop this newsletter
It is really easy. Just change your email address and don’t tell us.
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