December 2007 Newsletter

In this issue:

I. Your vote is still needed!

II. Update from Dr. Bill Roush

III. Update from Sebastian Fainbraun

IV. Questions about Florida Seminar answered

V. One way to stop this newsletter

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I. Your vote is still needed!

We hope you have appreciated all of the free assistance we have provided to you all year long. You can help us keep it coming by voting for NeuroShell if you are a subscriber of Stocks and Commodities magazine. We need you to vote for us. The reason this vote is so important is that prospective buyers use the results of the voting to make their buying decisions. That buying is what keeps us around to support you and keep enhancements coming. Just go to www.ward.net for instructions of the voting procedure.

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II. Update from Dr. Bill Roush

Dr. William Roush at the USDA/ARS South Central Poultry Research Laboratory, Mississippi State, is a pioneer in applying neural networks to analyze poultry feed and other aspects of the health of “broiler” chickens. His extensive research has placed him in the forefront of the scientific application of non-linear modeling in the field. Dr. Roush also speaks about and teaches neural network applications. Dr. Roush has provided us with two of his recent publications, which we feel are important even if you aren’t into poultry because they compare neural networks and genetic algorithms to other modeling methods:

“Comparison of Gompertz and Neural Network Models of Broiler Growth”

“Comparison of Fitting Growth Models with a Genetic Algorithm and Nonlinear Regression”

Dr. Roush’s new papers can be found on our website under the title “Chicken Feed”:

http://www.wardsystems.com/apptalk.asp#science

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III. Update from Sebastian Fainbraun

Sebastian Fainbraun is one of the “Real Traders” on our website. We recently received this update on his activities:

Thanks again for creating such an amazing piece of software. As you know, I used your software quite successfully to trade bond futures at a large NY institution; I am now using your software for option trading (spread writing). I don’t want to get into mechanics or methods at this point because I don’t want to give anything away but I just figured out how to use your software to write options successfully 98% of the time. Now mind you that whenever I create a system, it goes through some serious statistical scrutiny before it is even traded (I have software that specifically test trading systems for statistical validity) and rather than prove that the system works, I try to prove my hardest that it doesn’t work and if that is null then I use the statistical software to make sure the positive returns are not due to luck or any sort of bias. Anyways, the method I am using is statistically valid and provides the same results over a 3 year training period and a 3 year forward test (close to 1500 sample observations). Just a little clue, people should stop trying to predict where prices are going to be in the future and concentrate on where they are NOT going to be. It’s a lot easier to prove and just as profitable!! Once you know the method, it is quite easy. It took me all of 1 hour to create the neural net for this system. I have tested in one market and envision running this in 5-10 non-correlated markets.

Hope to catch you guys at next year’s seminar,

Sebastian

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IV. Questions about Florida Seminar answered

Q. Do I have to bring my laptop?
A. Absolutely not, because everything we do will be displayed on the projection screen, so you will see everything we are doing with the program. Also, in addition to a paper copy of our materials, you will receive an electronic copy to take home. On the other hand, if you WANT to bring your laptop, you may, and the conference room will have power and wireless Internet. Hotel rooms require plug-in ethernet connection, but it is free.

Q. If I need to leave early Thursday to catch a plane how much will I miss?
A. The prepared part of our presentations end at 3:30 PM each day. The optional informal workshops run from 3:30 PM to 5:00 PM.

Q. When I register for the class do I have a hotel reservation?
A. No, you have to make that yourself. When you call, specify that you are attending the Ward Systems Seminar to receive the discount.

Q. Approximately how many users will be attending?
A. The Seminar will be strictly limited to 30 people.

Q. Will I find out who the old lady is?
A. No, but we will give you some hints about Granny.

For more information visit our website: www.neuroshell.com/seminar.asp

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V. One way to stop this newsletter

It is really easy. Just change your email address and don’t tell us.

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