In this issue:
I. We STILL need your vote!
II. Thank you for your support add-on sale
III. NeuroShell Trader 5.2 now available
IV. NeuroShell Trader tips.
V. Editorial Comment by Steve Ward, CEO
VI. Don’t download the Interactive Brokers API !!!
VII. One way to stop this newsletter
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I. We STILL need your vote!
If you are a subscriber of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, then we still need your vote in the Reader’s Choice Awards. It will help you as well as help us. Why? We need new buyers to keep supporting the investment that you made in our software. Many prospective buyers rely on the TASC results for their buying decision.
Get your copy of the November Stocks & Commodities magazine and visit www.Traders.com. Look in the upper left hand corner of the web site for the 2007 Readers’ Choice Awards and click on the Vote Now! link.
On the page that is displayed enter your subscriber ID from your magazine address label (look at their example to see which numbers on the label are the subscriber ID).
After you are logged in, look for the Artificial Intelligence Software (Expert, Neural) category. Be sure to mark you ballot for NeuroShell Trader Professional (Ward Systems Group Inc.)
Do the same for the Standalone Analytical Software, $1000 and more category. Look for NeuroShell Trader. Please vote now before you forget.
The winners will be announced in the February 2007 Stocks & Commodities Bonus Issue.
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II. Thank you for your support add-on sale
Now that we are near the end of the year we want to give you a holiday present for your support all year. For the next week (through Friday December 8) we’ll be selling all of our NeuroShell Trader add-ons, including Cybernetic and MESA 8, at a 20% discount. This sale is only for existing owners of NeuroShell Trader, Trader Pro, and DayTrader Pro. It is not for new purchasers of those products. That means Ward Systems add-ons are only $239.20 each, Cybernetic is 319.20, and MESA 8 is $399.20! You can call and order, or order online. If you order online, mention in the comments that you are an existing user and that you want the 20% discount.
VIPs (our customers who have PREVIOUSLY purchased more than $4000 of Ward Systems software and services) will receive a 25% discount. Be sure to mention that you are a VIP in the comments if you order online.
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III. NeuroShell Trader 5.2 now available
We have recently started shipping NeuroShell Trader 5.2. If you already own release 5.0 or better, you may download release 5.2 for free. Just go to www.ward.net, login, and visit the section called “Release news, upgrade information and beta tests.” There you will find information on requesting release 5.2.
Release 5.2 has no major enhancements except that if there is a program crash, it gives you the opportunity to send the crash information to us with your notes about what you were doing. This is somewhat similar to the crash reporting system that Microsoft uses.
On the other hand, we have fixed dozens of bugs that were reported in releases 5.0 and 5.1. This is a very stable release that has been tested by beta testers for many weeks now, so we strongly recommend that all users download it if you are eligible.
This release also should run on the new operating system VISTA. It is not our official VISTA release, because help files have not yet been converted, but if you have been wanting to use the VISTA betas it should work for you. We don’t guarantee it will work on VISTA, but if it doesn’t we’ll fix whatever problem you find.
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IV. NeuroShell Trader tips.
Release 5 features related to in-sample and out-of-sample
The following explains the release 5.x in-sample and out-of-sample features in wording different than either the help files or the examples.
Both the Prediction Wizard and the Trading Wizard now work the same way. There are three contiguous periods of time you can select from:
1. Training/optimization – associated with gray on the chart, and the time period in the past during which training and optimization takes place.
2. Paper Trading – associated with orange on the chart, and the time period in the past following period 1 training/optimization during which each model found during the training/optimization is separately backtested to see how it does on future out-of-sample data. The model that works best on this period 2 is kept, even though the objective of optimization/training is to do best during the training/optimization period 1. In other words, we are not keeping the best model for period 1. We are keeping the best model for period 2 which was noticed during the evolution of the best model for period 1. That will not necessarily be the same as the best model for period 1. It will also probably not be as good as the best model possible for period 2 if we had actually optimized over period 2.
3. Trading/evaluation – associated with green on the chart, and the time period following paper trading period 2 (if there is a period 2, or after period 1 if there is no period 2) during which the model is separately backtested for a true out-of-sample experience. You need to turn this option on the first time using Tools->Options->Advanced->Allow real trading to begin before last chart date.
If you train and optimize in period 1 you do not have to have either of the out-of-sample periods 2 or 3. You can have neither, either, or both following period 1. We’ll explain:
I. Neither – you train/optimize and do no further testing at all.
II. Either
a. If you have only a paper trading period, you go forward with the model optimized over period 1 but found best in the out-of-sample paper trading period 2. This is equivalent to trying many models, then testing each one out-of-sample to see which one worked best in later out-of-sample. We have thus automated the process almost everyone follows anyway.
b. If you have only a trading/evaluation period, you go forward with the model that worked best during period 1 training/optimization, but you see how it did on the contiguous out-of-sample period. There is no paper trading period 2 in this case, and no bars are reserved for it.
III. Both – in this case, you keep the model that worked best during period 2 out-of-sample paper trading, but in the end it is still separately backtested over another out-of-sample period 3, under the assumption that with all the out-of-sample testing in period 2 you may need yet a final out-of-sample test to maintain purity (if you think such purity is essential, which we believe is true if you are testing new medicines, but arguable in financial markets).
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V. Editorial Comment by Steve Ward, CEO
1. I have to admit, we did have more than a few bugs in release 5.0 of NeuroShell Trader, which came out in March. In spite of almost two years of beta testing prior to the release, there were way more bugs than we thought we had. Back in March we thought the new release was very stable, and we were wrong. But I can assure you that we have all worked very hard since March to get NeuroShell Trader back to the stability it enjoyed at the end of release 4. I hesitate to use the words “Mission accomplished” or similar, but I really think we are there. Now we turn our attention to Microsoft VISTA. Although we think release 5.2 runs ok on VISTA, we have a big job ahead of us converting help files. Then we can start enhancing the software, putting in some of the things we have been promising, and maybe starting on release 6.0.
2. You can help us help you by voting for us in the Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities contest (see Article I above). Winning that contest convinces new people to purchase our software, which keeps us healthy so we can continue to pay dividends to you on the software investment YOU made when YOU purchased. Many of you made that purchase long ago, and you’re still getting free support because new people keep buying. You are still getting free incremental updates, and fairly low cost major upgrades. Let’s keep it that way.
3. We are also working on VISTA versions of the NeuroShell Predictor, Classifier, RunTime Server, and GeneHunter. As we have previously mentioned, the Predictor and Classifier will also have other enhancements, including new graphics, and the ability to process larger training files.
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VI. Don’t download the Interactive Brokers API !!!
NeuroShell installs all the software you will need to accomplish interactive trading with Interactive Brokers(IB) except the IB Trader Workstation(TWS) itself. If you want NeuroShell to trade with IB you should first read all of the documentation about trading with IB in our help files. Then you can download the TWS itself (not beta versions) but DO NOT download or install the programmer’s API. If you do you may find yourself unable to do interactive trading with NeuroShell, and you may get a runtime error like 13 or 450. The reason is that IB frequently builds new releases of their API that are incompatible with the previous releases that NeuroShell has been set up to communicate with. These new versions of the API do not affect your trading one way or the other, they only affect programmer interfaces. Although we frequently update our versions of the API that we install, IB provides no warning to us when they are about to make changes, so to keep yourself out of trouble, heed our advice and do not install the API yourself.
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VII. One way to stop this newsletter from coming
It is really easy. Just change your email address and don’t tell us.
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