April 2015 Newsletter – A Little Pyramiding Can Result in Big Results

April 27, 2015
A Little Pyramiding Can Result in Big ReturnsPyramiding
by Marge Sherald, President

This chart is a perfect example of how to turn a profitable prediction into a trading system that dramatically enhances profits by using a feature from the Power User versions of NeuroShell Trader.

I began with a prediction for the spice company McCormick and Company (MKC), a stock that exhibits the cycles that are beneficial to successful neural net predictions because of the likelihood of repeating patterns.  Net inputs came from our standby Price Momentum category:  Average Directional Movement (ADX), Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Relative Momentum Index (RMI) and Stochastic %K (Stoch %K).  I also added the Spread% between the high and low values from the Time Series category.  The daily model traded 100 shares at a time and included a two month out-of-sample period.  The Return on Account for the two month out-of-sample period is 7.0% for the prediction.

The equity curve for the prediction is displayed in green on the bottom subgraph.  The trading strategy equity curve is displayed in blue.

Next I decided to use the pyramiding feature from the Trader Power User version.  Pyramiding allows the Trading System to scale into and out of trades with more than one entry or exit order as long as the conditions that generated the trading signal remain true.  In the case of a prediction that would mean the predicted value remains > or < the threshold values for entry and exit conditions.

I changed the position sizing from buying 100 shares to buy as many shares as possible in a range from 10 to 20% of the account balance.

On the pyramiding tab in the Trading Strategy wizard I set the max number of entries/exits to 2 to 3 and allowed the entries/exits to change in size from 25 to 50% of the prior position. Commissions and the optimization objective remained the same.

This summary screen shows the settings for the Trading Strategy that took advantage of the Pyramiding option from the Trader Power User.

The Trading Strategy showed a 8.9% Return on Account compared to the 7.0% for the prediction. Note that Return on Account is the percentage return over a period of time on your money invested. The formula for Return on Account is (net profit)/(account size required), so this statistic shows that the Trading Strategy produced a better return even allowing for the fact that a larger trading account was required to implement the Trading Strategy compared to the prediction.
You can obtain a copy of the example chart from www.ward.net in the Examples section.

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