In this issue:
I. We’d still like to have your vote!
II. Race Handicapping Tips From Stefan Perry
III. Alpha testing started for release 4.0
IV. Single stock futures – Opinion by Steve Ward, CEO
V. In case you missed it before
VI. No more newsletters in the future?
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I. We’d still like to have your vote!
Voting for the Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities 2003 Readers Choice Awards is continuing until January 15. We’d like to do well – we don’t want this to be another one of those close elections.
If you subscribe to the magazine, simply go to their web site, www.traders.com, and look in the upper left corner of the home page. Look for the words: 2003 Readers’ Choice Awards. Click on the link to Vote Now. There are two links for the NeuroShell Trader:
Page 2 – Standalone Analytical Software $500 and more and Page 3 – Artificial Intelligence Software.
Thank you for your vote.
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II. Race Handicapping Tips From Stefan Perry
“Harnessing the power of neural networks from a users perspective. Same data, same NNet engine, but the way the training data is presented can make or break the chances of a useful result.”
So begins Stefan Perry’s excellent 22 page article in the SMARTsig Confidential journal, a journal dedicated to horse racing systems, betting tactics, staking strategies, selection methods, horse and sports handicapping, horse racing results etc – aimed squarely at the serious betting community, those who prefer to employ their own selection skills rather than relying upon ‘advisory services’.
Stefan proceeds to lay out an excellent roadmap to using the NeuroShell Predictor to predict the outcome of races. We have posted a condensed version of his article in the NeuroShell Predictor section of www.ward.net. Use your Predictor serial number to log on and read it, or if you don’t own the Predictor, email us at sales@wardsystems.com and we’ll email back a copy.
If you are interested in becoming a member of SMARTsig, visit them at www.smartsig.com.
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III. Alpha testing started for release 4.0
We have finally given our testers release 4.0 of NeuroShell Trader, Trader Pro, and DayTrader Pro. How soon we get it out to all users now depends on how many bugs our alpha testers find, and how fast we can fix those bugs.
Release 4.0 is a significant new release, because it contains, among many other things:
1. An intraday interface to Esignal
2. A “data pump” which will allow you to feed intraday data NeuroShell programmatically
3. The ability to optimize one model for all chart pages (i.e., the same model for all issues in the chart)
4. A new charting interface with the ability to size subcharts
5. Menu item to email charts and data
6. The ability to minimize the Trader while processing
7. Autosaving of chart before optimizing or training (crash protection of chart)
8. Save prediction/strategies for use in other charts
9. The ability to retrieve overnight sessions from Quote.com
10. Trading Portfolio Status (i.e. open trades/filled trades/closing trades…)
11. Trade Prompting (i.e. Message box stating that you need to place an order for X shares of IBM)
12. Ability to create ticker symbols that are simple combinations of ticker prices and use the combination symbol as the primary data series. The optimizations and trading strategies will be based on the ticker symbol combination and results determined on the calculation, not a single ticker symbol. For instance a ticker symbol combination might be [5*YHOO – 2.5*INTC + 3*MSFT], which would result in a price stream on the chart that is 5*YHOO’s price minus 2.5*INTC’s price plus 3*MSFT’s price.
13. Optimization timeout – timer in the Trader so that the Optimization process could be stopped after x minutes, instead of running until no better solution found.
14. Option to stop optimization/save results when out of sample results are best
15. TradeStation intraday chart data transfer
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IV. Single stock futures – Opinion by Steve Ward, CEO
Several years ago I was trading stocks, and later I switched to eminis because the profit potential is so much greater. I also like trading futures because it is so clean – no uptick rule for short sales and no nasty restrictions for “day traders”. Of course, the big draw is the low margin requirements for futures contracts. I don’t know a thing about trading commodities and I’m not confident about being able to capture weather and other variables that drive commodity sales, but the eminis are volatile and fun.
However, I miss the variety in the stock market. So now I’m really getting interested in single stock futures. You get to trade stocks on low margin (20%), no uptick rule, and no discrimination against day traders. As far as I know, the 60/40 tax treatment for futures still holds for single stock futures, but you’d better consult your tax expert on that one (or IRS Pub 550).
For more information on the advantages of single stock futures look here:
http://www.onechicago.com/010000_learningctr/oc_010000.html
www.nqlx.com
http://www.xpresstrade.com/single_stock_futures.html
Now, how to trade them in NeuroShell Trader? I don’t see any reason why you can’t just use the normal stock prices to build your models, and then use the signals generated to buy and sell the futures contract instead of the stock. What could be easier? No fooling with continuous contracts. Any models you’ve already built for the stock trading of appropriate issues should be good for single stock futures trading too.
There isn’t much volume yet on single stock futures, and you might think that would limit your liquidity. However, the “market makers” are constantly adjusting the bid and ask prices as the stock itself moves, and so far I haven’t had problems getting in and out as long as I am willing to take these prices. The spread does seem to me a little larger than with eminis, though.
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V. In case you missed it before
We now have available a new release (release 3.0) of the NeuroShell RunTime Server. This product enables you to distribute applications made with the NeuroShell Predictor and Classifier. The new release is web-enabled, meaning you can now publish your applications on Internet or intranet web pages!
To assist you with firing your networks on web pages, we have added examples in Active Server Pages (ASP) and ASP for .NET. There are examples for both the NeuroShell Predictor and NeuroShell Classifier.
We’ve also added Predictor and Classifier examples for VB.NET, MSVC6, VB6, and Delphi6.
If you already own the NeuroShell RunTime Server or the AI Trilogy, you may upgrade to the new RunTime Server for $139 ($89 if you are willing to take delivery by Internet download). If you purchased either the RunTime Server or the AI Trilogy after November 1, 2002, and did not receive RunTime 3.0 or Trilogy 2.0, you are eligible for a free upgrade.
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VI. No more newsletters in the future?
No, we aren’t ending this newsletter. But you will think we did if you change your email address and don’t send us your new one!
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