Which Volatility Measure? (Standard Deviation and Average True Range) (TASC June 2001)

In the article ‘Average True Range or Standard Deviation?’, Gordon Gustafson creates standard deviation and true range bands to compare the two different measures of volatility. To create each band in the NeuroShell Trader, select ‘New Indicator …’ from the ‘Insert’ menu and create each of the following indicators using the Indicator Wizard:

Standard Deviation Bands

STDH: Add2(ExpAvg(Close,20), Mult(StndDev(Close,20),2))
STDL: Sub(ExpAvg(Close,20), Mult(StndDev(Close,20),2))

Average True Range Bands:

STDHA: Add2(ExpAvg(Close,20), Mult(AverageTrueRange(Close),20),2))
STDLA: Sub(ExpAvg(Close,20), Mult(AverageTrueRange(Close),20),2))

Note that the True Range indicator is included in the NeuroShell Trader Advanced Indicator Set Add-on and is also available for free download on the Ward Systems Group free technical support website.

To test the Standard Deviation and Average True Range indicators in NeuroShell Trader as Gordon does in the last half of his article, you should create the three Trading Strategies shown below. Since NeuroShell Trader is not limited to only one Trading Strategy per chart, you can create and display all three Trading Strategies on a single chart. To create a Trading Strategy, select ‘New Trading Strategy …’ from the ‘Insert’ menu and enter the entry conditions and exit conditions in the appropriate locations of the Trading Strategy Wizard:

Standard Deviation Band Trading Strategy:

Generate a buy long MARKET order if ALL of the following are true:
A<B(Close, STDL )
Generate a sell long MARKET CLOSE if ALL the following are true:
BarsSinceActivated(TradingStrategy,5)

Average True Range Trading Strategy:

Generate a buy long MARKET order if ALL of the following are true:
A<B(Close, STDLA )
Generate a sell long MARKET CLOSE if ALL the following are true:
BarsSinceActivated(TradingStrategy,5)

Exclusive Average True Range Trading Strategy:

Generate a buy long MARKET order if ALL of the following are true:
A<B(Close, STDLA )
A>B(Close, STDL )
Generate a sell long MARKET CLOSE if ALL the following are true:
BarsSinceActivated(TradingStrategy,5)

If you have the NeuroShell Trader Professional, you can also choose whether or not the system parameters should be optimized. To set up the trading strategy to trade a fixed $510,000 of S&P contracts, simply press the ‘Modify Trading Strategy Parameters …’ button, choose the buy a fixed dollar amount of contracts option, set the desired dollar amount to $510,000 and then set the point value for futures contracts to 250. After backtesting each trading strategy, use the ‘Detailed Analysis …’ button to view the backtest and trade-by-trade statistics for the system.

File Download

stddev.exe

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